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jjcote
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote #61   
Manta_Dreaming wrote:
jjcote wrote:
It may be doable, but it ain't average.

The point is that ST will skew the average higher. For example, I average 6-8 1000+ foot altitude flights a day from ST and a third of that maybe for mountain launches.

Sure, it will boost the averaget somewhat, but there aren't that many people doing it, and there are also a bunch of people flying even less than someone like me who offset the ST guys.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #62   
dave hopkins wrote:
A few yrs back there where 50 pg fatalities in europe. They said it was a much more turbulent yr then usual. I think the HG deaths were about 5 that same yr. but that didn't surprise me.

Dave


Yes, but PGs seem to outnumber HGs ten to one in Europe. Tons of PGs everywhere, and few HGs. I even had a European come over and ask why I did HG, because "you know, delta is finish in Europe...no more...now parapente".

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #63   
sg wrote:
Horses even killed superman. Way too dangerous to ride.


What about paragliding from a horse? run Personally, I feel safer on my hang glider than I do on a horse. I've never had my hang glider try to turn around and bite me. Twisted Evil However, I have ridden my glider when I have felt like I was on a bucking bronco in a rodeo Shocked When I started hang gliding in 1975, we were averaging 40 or so fatalities a year. Some due to faulty equipment, most due to pilot error (like self launching a cliff in 30 m.p.h. winds). We were naive' and some of us were borderline just plain stupid! I luckily survived a few mishaps that should have killed me. After these, I got a little safer and so did a lot of the people with which I flew. Each discipline of flight has it's limitations and the sooner you learn what's good and what can hurt you , the safer you'll be. Widsom is learned through mistakes that don't seriously harm or kill you.One of the biggest mistakes in hang gliding is buying/flying a glider that is above one's skill level. In my opinion, this gets more people injured in our sport than anything. Those who aren't injured are lot of times sufficiently scared enough to quit and pursue something safer like scuba or country line dancing.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #64   
mapjim wrote:
dave hopkins wrote:
A few yrs back there where 50 pg fatalities in europe. They said it was a much more turbulent yr then usual. I think the HG deaths were about 5 that same yr. but that didn't surprise me.

Dave


Yes, but PGs seem to outnumber HGs ten to one in Europe. Tons of PGs everywhere, and few HGs. I even had a European come over and ask why I did HG, because "you know, delta is finish in Europe...no more...now parapente".

Jim!
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Where have you been? There's questions being asked like, "Isn't it Jim's round?"

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2012 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #65   
psuguru wrote:
mapjim wrote:
dave hopkins wrote:
A few yrs back there where 50 pg fatalities in europe. They said it was a much more turbulent yr then usual. I think the HG deaths were about 5 that same yr. but that didn't surprise me.

Dave


Yes, but PGs seem to outnumber HGs ten to one in Europe. Tons of PGs everywhere, and few HGs. I even had a European come over and ask why I did HG, because "you know, delta is finish in Europe...no more...now parapente".

Jim!
My Man!
Where have you been? There's questions being asked like, "Isn't it Jim's round?"

If you think he's been scarce lately, just hang on -- he's about to get a whole lot more scarce!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #66   
My interest in this thread is this: most HGs perceive HG to be safer than PG, while I, as an outsider, saw PG as safer.

The stats seem to show that the two are either equally dangerous (in terms of the chance of dying) or PG is safer. Yet, most pilots perceive the opposite.

Let me explain why I think PG would be safer:

1. In the US, fatalities for PG and HG are roughly the same, yet PGs way outnumber HGs at any flying site I've seen (POM, Terry, Kitty Hawk), fly more often, take more flights on each flying day, etc. It is not enough to just look at membership statistics -- you have to look at how much those members actually fly.

2. Don't know the stats in Europe, except that PGs seem to outnumber HGs by numbers close to infinite (10:1, 20:1, etc). This must be taken into account when comparing fatalities.

For the above 2 reasons, any argument about a large number of PG fatalities (or even injuries) is flawed b/c it does not take into account the low entry level into the sport, the number of self-taught pilots, easy travel and launch, the number of flights, etc.

People don' hike-and-fly with HGs, but they do with PGs. Because of convenience, etc., the average level of activity for PG pilots seems way higher than that for HGs. Many people at the Point fly PGs every flyable day, and for much longer times than their respective HG counterparts (who lose quite a bit of time just setting up).

3. Most other arguments in favor of HG are also flawed:
a. the "PG blown back but HG would have been fine" type argument is like faulting HG for not flying where Sesnas do -- you can't compare apples to oranges. If you take a PG in conditions outside its spectrum, you have to compare those to HGs likewise in conditions outside of the HG spectrum. When HGs fly close to or beyond their limit, they are just as dangerous, if not more.

b. The "rigid vs soft" airfoil is flawed as well because each type of foil has its own pros and cons. For instance, rigidity leads to higher speeds, more difficult landings, etc., which leads to fatalities by hitting the hill, flipping over while landing, etc.

Who is to say that PG's danger of landing in a thermal is not outweighed by HG's danger of incorrect pilot input on landing/hill-side flying of HG's flipping over in a stray wind gust?

Further, just because a collapse is not pilot-dependent and flying into the hill is, shouldn't lead to the conclusion that one is worse or better. HGs, unlike airplanes, are not flown by computers, so pilot error risk can be reduced only so far. Because of that, a certain level of pilot error risk will always be present, no matter how long you fly and how hard you train, so that this risk becomes objective rather than subjective. Thus, an advanced PG pilot and an advanced HG pilot may both make the same number of mistakes in a given year, yet the HG will be killed flying hill-side, while PG will not (as an example).

Of course, contrary examples are possible and have been given here. I am only presenting this side of the story b/c it has not been presented here, even by PG pilots, apparently.

The point is that general fatality stats would seem like a good indicator of the overall safety of each sport. Getting into distinctions such as whether it was pilot error or not is not useful b/c pilot error will always be present, no matter how much you train. The stats will give a good overall picture of the actual safety in real time and real conditions across a large number of individuals.

So, getting back to the stats, it seems that PG is statistically safer when the number of pilots, flights, airtime, and so forth, is taken into account. Given the current stats, if people were to recreationally travel the world with HGs in their backpacks, flying all kinds of sites they've never been to, and taking a large number of flights each flying day due to easy set up and launch from almost any area, I shudder to think what the fatalities statistics would be for HGs.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #67   
@flyinglawyer,

One can very well, compare apples to oranges, both fruits, grow on trees,
roundish, vitamin content, etc. The comparator must be aware of similarities
AND differences. You have done well to point out such visa via the HG and PG
stats.

As far as Mr. Masters, I have infinite respect for the pioneers of HG, but the
compiling of such stats seems to have no tangible effect on PG participation.
So belaboring the point seems more vindictive than educational.

The problem comes when HGers must absorb the cost of PGers in increased insurance costs by being called "hang gliders" by those who don't know the differences and similarities.

Regardless, Wyoming is now considering legislation to make backcountry adventurers of ALL types of sports liable for their own rescues.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #68   
flyinglawyer wrote:
My interest in this thread is this: most HGs perceive HG to be safer than PG, while I, as an outsider, saw PG as safer....

So you've interviewed more than 50% of active hang glider pilots in the U.S. and measured our perceptions? Funny, but I don't recall being asked by you or anyone else about this. As an insider to HG and having a PG pilot for my primary cross-country flying partner, I take exception to your characterization of HG pilots attitudes by sweeping a broad brush over the entire community.

As an insider to HG I can tell you that there is a vocal minority of HG pilots who like to badmouth the sport of PG. Why? I don't know. The former number one PG critic was and probably still is, Rick Masters who is semi-active on this forum under the name of GuessWho and as Rickmas on other forums. For reasons unknown to me, Rick Masters removed his famous cometclones website which once had a lot of data and statistic on PG fatalities worldwide.

I probably know about a hundred other active HG pilots in SoCal and a significant percentage also fly PG (bi-wingual). I was not around during the evolution of PG but as I understand it, the early PGs were prone to collapse and failure to re-inflate before impact. There were other issues with unrecoverable spiral dives, etc. as well.

I was involved in the early days of HG and lost my share of friends due to careless experimentation before vehicle testing became standard practice. My perception is that PG went through its own evolution and has increased its safety record tremendously.

As an insider who actively participates on this and other HG-related forums and also socializes in LZs around SoCal, I can tell you that the perception of HG forums in general is that the vast majority of posts lack substance or credibility and that responsible instructors advise their students to avoid taking anything seriously they may read here or elsewhere.

That is a common perception of HG forum posting. Too bad, because I think forums are fun and a good way to make contacts and learn interesting things. Frankly, I don't find the mainstream news media to be any more accurate or responsible in its reporting of everyday events than the posts right here.

But the mainstream media does not speak for me any more than the handful of active posters on this forum represents my attitude toward PG or anything else for that matter. I am confident that others will echo my sentiments.

So you may want to start a poll regarding Org members' attitudes toward PG vs HG safety or fatalities and see what shakes out. It could spawn a fun and entertaining discussion. good idea
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #69   
With only 4 more fatalities to go to match the global PG death total for 2011, I do not see any reason to think paragliding is getting safer. Nor do I think it is possible for reasons already discussed. On the other hand, I have encountered a surprising number of PG pilots from many countries who quit or took up hang gliding in response to viewing the website you mentioned. This would suggest that competent reporting of accidents can have a measurable effect on participation.

In the early years of HG, accident reports led to the evolution of robust gliders that were not divergent, the adoption of emergency reserve parachutes and an effective period of teaching, learning and sharing that substantially reduced pilot error. Today, almost all accidents in HG can be attributed to pilot error.

But today in the USPGA and US PG communities, comprehensive and independent accident reporting leads to fear and loathing, deliberate concealment and removal of data, denial, obfuscation, threats, lies and attacks. While a great deal of attention has been focused on pilot training, most deaths and permanent maiming injuries remain attributable, not to pilot error, but exclusively to the random nature of collapse -- for which there appears to be no cure. The failure of PG fatalities to decrease substantially over many years indicates that, while pilot error has been effectively reduced, the predisposition of the paraglider to kill its pilot at random is and has always been the predominate factor.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #70   
GuessWho wrote:
... the predisposition of the paraglider to kill its pilot at random is and has always been the predominate factor.


? 'the predisposition of the paraglider to kill its pilot'

? 'at random '

This doesn't make any sense to me.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #71   
Yes, at random. Below a certain altitude, your emergency reserve will not have time to deploy. Experienced pilots die just as often as fresher pilots. It doesn't matter how good you are. Fatalities appear random.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #72   
GuessWho wrote:
Yes, at random. Below a certain altitude, your emergency reserve will not have time to deploy. Experienced pilots die just as often as fresher pilots. It doesn't matter how good you are. Fatalities appear random.


Just how random ?

Does a paraglider wing 'kill its pilot' with the same frequency in calm air as in active air?

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #73   
Of course not. PGs become dangerous when they collapse in turbulence.

Delusional PG pilots are fond of saying that collapse is a non-event and they have plenty of altitude to recover. But roughly half the deaths that stem from collapse occur above emergency reserve deployment altitude. The paraglider collapses, falls, then snaps open with the pilot to one side. It then enters a spiral dive all the way into the ground.

The other half of fatalities occur low while taking off, ridge or cliff soaring, or on landing approach. There is not enough altitude to deploy the emergency reserve.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #74   
theayeinthesky wrote:
@flyinglawyer,

The problem comes when HGers must absorb the cost of PGers in increased insurance costs by being called "hang gliders" by those who don't know the differences and similarities.


I can totally see this happening. It's like, you scuba dive and nobody notices. Then comes an avalanche of snorklers and the sheer numbers alone are enough to cause problems. Well, that's how the popularity of flying has been progressing, through PG.

@NMERider:

I made my conclusion about general HG opinion from this forum and from the Oz report. I don't think it's unreasonable. I do understand, though, that it is just a general drift on the forum. A poll, though, is likely to yield the same result as the general drift seen now.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #75   
Spark wrote:
....Just how random ?...
From what my PG comp buddies tell me, it sounds like as random as certain types of air texture occur, but unpredictably. As you know, HGs tumble with little or no warning in certain types of turbulence but a lot less frequently than PG collapses.

From what my PG comp buddies tell me, the latest EnD class PGs and certain other 2-liners are so easy to fly that pilots push themselves into situations they wouldn't normally enter. Often the results are disastrous. My read on this is that the tremendous improvements in PGs has resulted in more accidents and not less, due to overly-aggressive flying.

I helped organize a PG comp this Summer at Sylmar and we had great weather for it and a very good turnout. I flew my Sensor and joined the PGs initially but left the course because we were having very tight, high-pressure thermals with falling edges. The adverse yaw of my Sensor was causing issues when working in close to PG that have proverse yaw.

I went downrange for an OnR X/C and a few of the PGs caught up to me. I was not aware that my buddy on his Ozone Enzo was right behind me in a tight thermal. I got kicked to the edge and pushed out all the way to prevent going over the falls. During me next revolution I looked down and saw my buddy 500' below me. I didn't find out what happened until a few weeks later when I did a beat up over the Crestline LZ in my T2C and when I landed my PG buddy came up to me and told me that I had waked him at Sylmar and caused a 40% collapse and he fell 400' before his canopy re-inflated.

He went on to tell me that he was taking HG lessons and was going to but a Lightspeed so he could go 70mph instead of 70 kph at the risk of a frontal collapse. PG like the Niviuk Icepeak 6 have taken over in SoCal and perform incredibly and are easy to fly from what the pilots all tell me. But the issue I hear about is how pilots put themselves in situations the push the PGs to the very edge of safety and beyond.

Nick Greece wrote in Coross Country magazine recently about how he nearly killed himself at the PWC. It wasn't his PG that nearly killed him but the way he pushed it to the edge and beyond.

There exists a safety paradox with bicycle helmets. yes, helmets make bicycling safer in certain situations but it has been documented that helmets have created a net-sum-zero situation where the same numbers of bicyclists wind up dead or with brain damage as if there were no helmets. Why is this? Two primary reasons:

1 - A greater number of motor vehicles will drive substantially closer to bicyclists who are wearing helmets than without which increases the likelihood of a collision.

2 - A greater number of bicyclists will take risks that they wouldn't without a helmet and the number of head injuries increases. Helmets are only good for low speed impacts.

At the same time, the numbers of bicyclists having low-speed crashes sustaining brain injuries or fatalities goes down due to helmet wearing.

I have read data that indicates the same effect is true for snowboarders as well.

So, from what I have been told by the very PG pilots who have been around and are flying the current generation of PGs, the increased safety of the PGs is often countered and exceeded by increased risk-taking and aggressive flying. That means entering situations where the types of turbulence that can cause serious collapses at random increases significantly.

Rick Masters has a point but the delivery of that point leaves something be desired.

BTW - In case anyone has never seen the film: Aoli, Comet Clones and Pod People, it is excellent and well worth watching. I borrowed a friend's original copy on VHS and watched it several times. I hope Rick succeeds in re-mastering it and re-releases it on DVD.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #76   
flyinglawyer wrote:
...I made my conclusion about general HG opinion from this forum and from the Oz report. I don't think it's unreasonable. I do understand, though, that it is just a general drift on the forum. A poll, though, is likely to yield the same result as the general drift seen now.
Polls are anonymous and well-constructed polls have seldom failed to surprise me at their results. Yes, the 'drift' is very apparent but I have been around this forum and the skies long enough to see trends in attitude change significantly.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #77   
GuessWho wrote:
With only 4 more fatalities to go to match the global PG death total for 2011, I do not see any reason to think paragliding is getting safer. Nor do I think it is possible for reasons already discussed. On the other hand, I have encountered a surprising number of PG pilots from many countries who quit or took up hang gliding in response to viewing the website you mentioned. This would suggest that competent reporting of accidents can have a measurable effect on participation.


Well, I am all for accurate reporting of facts, but you have to separate the facts themselves from your (or someone else's) characterization of those facts.

Again, if you compare the number of PG fatalities to how much PGs are flying and how many of them are flying, you won't be able to conclude that PG is more dangerous than HG. And by getting people to leave PG for HG you are also getting them to leave frequent flying on a moment's notice to much more rare flying schedule, and reduced time and number of flights due to the preparations involved.

I am not making a judgment if it's good or bad, but you seem to be doing it for the wrong reason -- the supposed safety. You may just be reducing those people's chances of an accident by merely reducing their flying time and pattern, but not gaining in actual overall safety. As I pointed out in my first post, it's far from clear that if HGs were to travel the world with gliders on their backs and taking as many different flights in as many varying conditions as PGs, they would have any fewer fatalities.

GuessWho wrote:
Today, almost all accidents in HG can be attributed to pilot error.


Doesn't matter. Pilot error will always be there, just like random bad air. See my first post. Even with pilot error alone (if we assume your position), HG & PG fatalities in the U.S. are about the same, with PGs taking several times more flights that HGs. I conclude from this that PG is statistically safer.

The inherent danger of no-hard-airfoil in PG is offset by inherent high speed of HG coupled with the prone flying position, for instance, making the latter just as dangerous, but in a different way.

Again, the stats speak for themselves. PG use is vastly greater than HG use, yet the difference in fatalities is not proportional in the same way. From this I conclude that PG is safer.

GuessWho wrote:
The failure of PG fatalities to decrease substantially over many years indicates that, while pilot error has been effectively reduced, the predisposition of the paraglider to kill its pilot at random is and has always been the predominate factor.


No, it just indicates that the popularity of the sport grew even faster than the reduction in fatalities.

I have no problem if you prefer HG to PG as a matter of taste or if you want to protect HGs from PGs in terms of adverse consequences from potential increased regulation, etc. But you have provided no rationale to establish that there is an objective difference in safety in favor of HG. If anything, the bare stats and numbers indicate that PG is safer, notwithstanding more deaths (see above).

It's like this: if you make $50K a year and pay $10K in taxes, and I make $5Mil a year and pay 1Mil it taxes, does it mean that my tax (death) rate is higher? No, the rate is the same, but the absolute values are different b/c of different pools of money (flyers). At least with respect to the U.S., where the fatalities for HG and PG are the same (within the statistical deviation), PG appears to be way safer based on substantially higher participation/flying.

Last time I was at Point of the Mountain, I saw two HGs and, like 30 PGs, and PGs were coming and going through the evening, so there was probably more like 60 of them that flew that afternoon/evening. And they each made several times more flights than the two HGs. The numbers are not even close. For the safety of the two sports to be the same, you'd need to have like 3 HG fatalities vs 90 PG fatalities per year, or so.

Of course, this is all a bunch of approximations, but one thing is clear: you have no grounds to conclude that HG is safer. If anything, you have some rough grounds to conclude that PG is safer, or that the two are about the same (within statistical variations). This is if you look at hard numbers, personal taste and preferences aside.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #78   
NMERider wrote:


BTW - In case anyone has never seen the film: Aoli, Comet Clones and Pod People, it is excellent and well worth watching. I borrowed a friend's original copy on VHS and watched it several times. I hope Rick succeeds in re-mastering it and re-releases it on DVD.


I REALLY, REALLY HATE TO SAY THIS, but I saw 1 copy available on Amazon.
If I wasn't paying property taxes this month it WOULD BE ALL MINE!

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #79   
Why would you want to have more flights each day? One all day flight seems perfectly acceptable to me.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote #80   
Practice for us lesser accomplished beings?
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