[sg]

What do things look like in your are when you go shopping?

I did a little bit of shopping at the mall the other day in Raleigh NC, and it was packed full of shoppers. Unemployment is at 10% supposedly, but it seems like the employed are spending quite a bit.

How about your area?

[Nibs]

I have friends that work retail and they say business is definitely down by the numbers, however it isn't quite as drastic as a lot of people would think. But as far as restaurants and bars go, they seem as busy as ever.

[designbydave]

The main thing I notice is the number of stores closing. Just off the top of my head:

Circuit City
DHL
CompUSA
HobbyPeople (in my area)
Ritz Camera
Chick's Sporting Goods
Mervin's

[Windlord]

This is a seasonal/tourist area with RV's, boaters and tourists passing thru
on their way up to Glacier National Park. Won't really know until the season
gets going, around mid-June.
The population increases and decreases by 30% around the lake for those
who have seasonal lake homes.
As far as the locals, I haven't seen much change. It appears it's business
as usual, but appearances can be deceiving.

[CHassan]

Just because they are at the mall doesn't mean they are buying things.

[axo]

30 to 50% or more down in business. Thats what i hear from my customers which own small and medium companies.
Still.. they need to go shopping for clothes, food and "cheaper" stuff on sale at the mall. Walking a Sunday at the mall is free and consumerism is a big part of the American lifestyle, so it wouldn't be a surprise to actually see more people walking at the mall just to get a taste of it in times when doing other more expensive things are not the best option.

[peanuts]

i spend a lot of time/money in lumber yards, home depot and lowe's type stores. couple of months ago, you had to fight for carts and had long waits to get served. now in the mornings, only about 5-6 trucks in the contractor parking lots. personally business is ALMOST nil, and customers are blaming the economy. auto body shops and garages are reporting the same.

maybe the reasons some stores seem crowded is because there are fewer stores, but the number of peoples ain't shrunk as well

[xerxes]

My business has gone up to the point that I have to turn some away! Unfortunately the reason many of my clients are working with me is because they had to lay off their full time tech help due to financial problems.

[HGXC]

I tend to trust the media to exaggerate the bad and minimize the good as much as possible. After all they make their money delivering bad news and pumping it up with follow up stories.

My company is in a parallel business with the financial banking and auto industry and we are holding our own even though everything you read says it ain't so.

Go figure.

Dennis

[sg]

Yeah Dennis, the media sensationalizes everything.
Thats why I started this thread. The feet on the ground know better


As to Lowes/Home depot. In my area they are very busy, and yes people are buying stuff, not just browsing. I have to play dodge the cart in the gardening isles and wait in checkout lines quite a bit.

Raleigh is officially the fastest growing metro area in the country now though. So thats the other reason I ask. Im getting a biased view here. Wondering what the rest of the country looks like. There seems to be quite a bit of variance.

[CAL]

I have an idea lets all start spending money. buy that new glider you always wanted, vario, harness, etc. if you want to create a job for someone or yourself go shopping . when you sale something use the money to buy something. lets start right hear and spread the wealth. its fun I am flying a new sport 2, fixing up my home, going out to eat and while I am having so much fun I am creating jobs for other people. lets go for it ! spread the word ! lets get or economy back we all can do it !

[sg]

Ive done my part this year. Bought a new home and TONS of stuff associated with it. Ive spent a ton of money this year Now just need the deck set and a flatscreen for the bedroom, and I think im finally done My wallet tapped out a long time ago though

[FormerFF]

We were in the mall last January (don't get there too often) Most of the stores were deserted, but the food court was reasonably busy.

The state reported sales tax collections were off 8% last month. That's relative to the previous year, at which point building had already done most of its decline. I suspect that 8% is mostly in motor vehicle sales, since they're off so much, and gasoline, since the price has declined. One thing I can attest to is that if you have a family not all that much of your spending is discretionary, so you don't tend to cut back unless you lose your job or get a pay cut.

I live in a neighborhood of 46 homes. There are probably 70 employed adults in those houses, and I know about half of them. Four of my neighbors have been laid off in the last six months, none have found new jobs. One more had her position eliminated, so she and her family are transferring back to Houston, where they came from last year.

[Mrsposer]

My business is waayyyyy down. Some of my color clients have started doing their own color at home (admittedly it looks like crap when they do that) and people are stretching their cuts longer. Our county at one time was the fastest growing in the country. I can't remember the year now. My business boomed for a long time. We have a ton of residents that commute back and forth to the Atlanta airport for their jobs. I lost quite a few clients when Northwest relocated but I also gained a few from new people in our area. Appr. half of my clientele works at Delta or other airline related jobs. Unfortunately, the people who are doing their own color and stretching their cuts will probably still do that when the economy gets back on track; which I am coming to believe is not going to happen very soon if at all. And, yes, the media needs to shut the hell up...a lot of my clients say "I heard on the news" before spilling the beans that they are moving their appt. from 4 weeks to 6 weeks.



While speaking to various clients and their situations it seems they are cutting back on everything.

[HGXC]

I said this at the beginning of the down side and it still holds true.

The worst thing about a recession is unemployment. We have had high unemployment 4-5 cycles in my adult years the worst by far was during the 79-81 recession when it hit over 11%. (the depression had numbers wayyy over that for years toping out around 24% )

A statement made by President Reagan is as true as ever that ..."A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours"

The rest is about consumer confidence and that drives most retail businesses. It unfortunately is what makes women die their own hair instead of treating themselves to a salon. That confidence is related to the media and how it pumps up the volume on negative economic views. I can see it affecting the market on a daily basis.

MY biggest fear is the pending inflation that will come after this is past. No more bailouts, no more pork spending, no charging businesses carbon offsets (so they pass that on to us in prices), unless they can make my ATOS fly better

Dennis

[flakey]

I go to Home depot alot too. It's always empty now. Home improvement is on the skids. People won't put money into a house that's losing value. A realestate investor friend of mine said "No property is worth more than 100x the rent you could get". A 4 brdrm house rents for $2500 tops in HB. Those houses were selling for 700k. Their down about 60% and still have a way to go. Problem is, rents are falling also. I've never seen so many for rent signs in 25 years of living here. As far as my business goes, I can never keep up. But that's because I'm lazy, like right now. I'm going to buy another jetski this afternoon for dirt cheap, $100 bucks.

[Frontman]

I do Cellular and Video Surveillance and everyhting is down. For example, one system we were going to do in a mini-mall cancelled because the owner is losing tenants. Same with our landlord for my cellular shop. He says he typically has one or two turnovers per year in all his properties, and it's way up this year already.

In my cell store, I used to have three employees working at the same time while I was out playing ;-) Now, it's me and another guy most days, and then I have them at only 30hrs a week.

I honestly think it is continuing to get worse. Like my landlord says, he's not necessarily making a lot less, but he is working a lot more, and harder, to keep things moving. That is where I am at too. Where I would have had an employee working in the past, now it's me doing the work because I need the money. Less play time. But it sure has allowed me to get in tune with my businesses! When I was going over the bills, I noticed I've had an 800# for three years, that I NEVER ordered! Got a $295 credit on the phone bill!

So, there is good, there is bad, and there is ugly. The people WITH money need to spend it, because if my business gets back to usual, I can hire another employee or three, which will contribute to the economy. If we all hold on to every dime, it contributes to a downward spiral to a one world currency ;-)

[Mrsposer]

[quote="Frontman"]

The people WITH money need to spend it, quote]



I couldn't agree more.

[blindrodie]

Things seem pretty normal around KC. The wife and I are doing better then ever personally, (we are both in education) but I started out poor and I'm gunna stay that way!

I'm waiting for house prices to pick up again. I notice there are a lot of home buyers working our little neighborhood were the average sale price is $124,000 for a 2 BR ranch on a crawl space.

[Wingspan34]

My area of NY has never been economically "high end". Except for a few large businesses like Corning Inc, things tend to be somewhat stagnant. I think that is almost a blessing since, if you're not in a boom area, you can't go bust quite so easily.

But recently, my girl friend decided to look for a new (then used) car (she decided not to get one, but to revive her dieing V W). During the process, we went into many dealerships and, while a few were doing good business, others were basically empty of customers.

In one example: The closest LARGE dealership to me, has something like 10 salesman's desks across the front windows of the show room. When I went in to see what they had in 2-4 year old used cars, there were only two salesman in the whole place (with an inventory of at least 200 new cars!). Obviously, that means that 8 salesman were out of work, or cut to (much?) fewer hours.

Typically, when we stopped by a dealership, we'd poke around in the used car area of the lot to see if they had any of the models my GF was interested in. We'd usually get visited by a salesman within a minute - while 2-3 other salesman stood around idle - and watching.

I termed the phrase "vulture" for those poor sales guys. They'd see you the moment you pulled in and swoop down on you, in, almost literally, seconds. If things were doing well, I really believe they'd have been a bit more relaxed.

And, I wish I could remember where it was I heard it, but some financial authority, about a month ago, said that the media is significantly UNDER reporting the depth of the problem. But only time will tell. You just can't have major banks and financial institutions collapsing and have the remaining house of cards remain sound.

And about spending money? Sure, if you have it, spend some. But there are MANY baby boomers who's retirement money (401 Ks) has all but evaporated. Even if they have 10 more years before reaching retirement (which they may not even be able to do) they are going to cut their spending, just to feel safe.

Next -

The very behavior of those big financial Corps was of the "grab all you can before the sh*t hits the fan" variety. When it's easy to make HONEST money, I think that's how people do it. But when they get desperate to keep the cash pumping, they'll do just about anything - as we have all witnessed.

Oh, one last observation. The housing market in my area has always been well below the average metropolitan area. Houses can sell for 45 -100K in an average, pleasant neighborhood. You'd look in the paper and see them described on the real estate pages.

This is also the Finger Lakes region and a prime area (on the shores and hills around the lakes) for some NICE vacation and/or second homes. Well, a couple weeks ago I noticed a bunch of houses in the real estate section that just didn't fit the usual pattern. There were SEVERAL ads for houses in the 200 - 500K range. I couldn't figure it out at first, then realized these were the "richie riches" who'd been seriously hit by what's going on. Like rats jumping off the sinking ship, they were trying to cash out. Kind of scary, in fact.

Now that I've gotten everyone good and depressed, . . . be thankful you have a steady and viable job and/or business - if you do. Have some sympathy for those who haven't fared as well. We'll all see how good or bad things have gotten by this time next year. Try not to panic in the mean time. As FDR once said, "All we have to fear, is fear itself."